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Sunday, August 17, 2008

NIFTY STILL POSTIVE BUT NOT INDIVIDUAL STOCKS

Nifty is still moving in the positive territory of the MACD curve, even though there has been some downturn in the last few days. Thursdays fall can be attributed to the inflation that has gone beyond the 12% curve to hit 12.44%, this is been quoted as the highest inflation figure in the last 12 years! quite obviously it was the trigger for the markets shed off some recent gains. Intersting thing to note is though nifty and large caps such as Reliance Industries, ICICI bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Hindustan Unilever (HLL), State Bank of India (SBI) is still positive some of the individual stocks stocks specially the mid caps (and some exceptions in the large cap e.g. Infosys Technologies, Reliance Petroleum etc) have moved into negative MACD. This is not a good sign as the recovery that had happened was a slow one, so if the stocks donot recover quickly then we might again see prolonged sideways float of these stocks, with a negative bias. Although personally I donot see that these will crumble the way they did in the first of this year, yet the fall in midcaps is never a soft landing and they tend to lose as much as 5-20% in a single day also. So where do we go from here.... my sense is this series is safe and we do not have much to fear. However if the large caps move in the positive zone while the small and mid caps lag behind then it is not the ideal market that the retail investor would want to be in. So as of now the big boys are looking in a better shape to weather the storm!!!

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