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Saturday, November 8, 2008

To be long or short on Nifty now?


Markets are still showing a negative MACD curve, but the good news is that the negative MACD is rising fast to come into the positive territory...Once the MACD moves into positive territory then what I have observed is that usually the stock momentum goes up and stocks start to see some meaningful gains! As I have written in myprevious posts that some of the stocks seem to have seen the worst for them. .. Also another interesting thing to note is that the recovery in NIFTY was verymeaningful...For e.g. I had bought TISCO at 152 odd and saw some 50% gains over the next one week, though its a different story that it has retraced back a bit, but still it is still at 20-25% gain!!! similar is the story with other stocks that have gained smartly in this pullback. 

Now the point to note is that how does this series go...from the indications it doesn't look like that the series is breaking away on the downside immediately. The signs are looking alright, and my punt is that the series might hold its own. However that does not take us out of the bear market that we are witnessing...so waiting and watching is the best policy with perhaps a tilt towards being cautiously optimistic for some days...

I am currently not trading in F&O for some time now, but I am sure there would be interesting opportunities like buying or selling straddles or collars to play with now, rather than taking unidirectional positions...

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