NIFTY POSITIVE SERIES

So finally markets have risen... thankfully to the relief of many of the investors and traders alike. It was long awaited and least anticipated. Crude falling and politics is being cited as the factors, but actually are they the real factors? Well crude to a certain extent does help in improving the situation, wherein the prices are coming to more reasonable levels, but other factors I am not so sure about. In my opinion its a question of series play as well, wherein a particular series is set up in such a way that it has more chances of going up rather than going down. If you read my post written on June 24, titled RBI Rate Hike and its Effects, I had mentioned that we must not lose hope on the markets and the July series might surprise us on the positive. Well thats what exactly happened. The trades (of Futures and Options) in the July series had become so tempting that it was a jackpot time for people to make money going against the trend. Also at the same time individual stocks had become so tempting that it was impossible not to buy into them.


Even after the fall of Friday, which was because of factors outside the business purview, the trend is not broken. The MACD for 14 days is finally coming from a negative to a zero zone, and thats the good news. Once it breaks into the positive zone it will be a good signal. Some of the stocks have already moved into the positive zone and in the fall of Friday those stocks actually did not go down. This is not to say that markets cannot go down, but the technicals arent looking bad for a upmove so lets hope that the August series as good as the July one!!!

NIFTY STILL POSTIVE BUT NOT INDIVIDUAL STOCKS

Nifty is still moving in the positive territory of the MACD curve, even though there has been some downturn in the last few days. Thursdays fall can be attributed to the inflation that has gone beyond the 12% curve to hit 12.44%, this is been quoted as the highest inflation figure in the last 12 years! quite obviously it was the trigger for the markets shed off some recent gains. Intersting thing to note is though nifty and large caps such as Reliance Industries, ICICI bank, Bharti Airtel, ITC, Hindustan Unilever (HLL), State Bank of India (SBI) is still positive some of the individual stocks stocks specially the mid caps (and some exceptions in the large cap e.g. Infosys Technologies, Reliance Petroleum etc) have moved into negative MACD. This is not a good sign as the recovery that had happened was a slow one, so if the stocks donot recover quickly then we might again see prolonged sideways float of these stocks, with a negative bias. Although personally I donot see that these will crumble the way they did in the first of this year, yet the fall in midcaps is never a soft landing and they tend to lose as much as 5-20% in a single day also. So where do we go from here.... my sense is this series is safe and we do not have much to fear. However if the large caps move in the positive zone while the small and mid caps lag behind then it is not the ideal market that the retail investor would want to be in. So as of now the big boys are looking in a better shape to weather the storm!!!