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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

Allahabad Bank !!!


It seems to be a good buy, with a forward PE ratio of around 4, a dividend yield of around 2% and a price to book of just 1!!! Most of the other public sector banks are in the range of 1.5 Price / book, which means that there is scope for further upside. Also the stock has just made a 52 week high, and the charts are also looking good.

Also what i have observed is that these PSU stocks were 8-10 times cheaper in 2002-03, now this basically means that they have appreciated 8-10 times in 7-9 years!!! Now thats impressive performance, and yes not to mention that these stocks have given a constant stream of dividends, and add to it the stability offered by the govt.


Monday, November 9, 2009

Time for some covering!!!


I shorted the nifty and the move went wrong!!!

Markets went up by 2%, and I think this might be the start of another uptrend, since the speed with which the markets covered up was amazing. So in 3 days we have covered more than 300 points on the nifty, from a low of 4530 to 4906 (futures). So all the people who shorted in between would have lost a lot (including yours sincerely). And well this is inspite of the fact the US job losses figure is at a 23 year high of 10.2%, and the markets still rallied!!!! Now it sometimes confuses me, whether the markets see more than what meets the eye, or is it some play larger than what normal mortals can think off!!!!

I am now taking a break, as I think I need to rework on my strategies to play the markets profitably. In any case would keep on posting, if I find something interesting coming along....Happy investing....going long....

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Is it time to short the markets?


An article that sums up the current trend of the Nifty...

Is Dalal Street`s dream run that saw the BSE sensex more than double in seven months entering a corrective zone? Although market players are Why realty is good investment a divided lot, but a set of data points to a correction.

In the two weeks since the Muhurat
Day trading on October 17, the sensex has lost nearly 8%, or 1,340 points, to its current level of 15,896. This huge slide has also made the last fortnight the worst for the sensex in the post-Diwali trading period in 10 years. To a large extent, this loss is attributed to selling by foreign institutions while buying by the domestic ones have given it some cushion, market players said.

Since October 17, while FIIs have net sold stocks worth about Rs 4,460 crore (nearly 0 million), net buying by domestic institutions is about Rs 2,200 crore, BSE data showed. While the BSE and NSE data on institutional trading reflect their activities only in the secondary market, the data published by Sebi also include their investments through IPOs, QIPs and other routes.

BSE data showed that in the first 16 days of October, FIIs had a net buying figure of Rs 4,460 crore while during the second half of themonth they booked profit and took an equal amount off the table. ‘‘Very clearly concerted selling happening on the FII front,`` said Arun Kejriwal, director, KRIS, an
investment advisory firm. If this trend continues, the sensex could slide further, and at a fast clip, institutional dealers said.


Market players also pointed out that since Diwali Day, at every high, investors are coming in to book profits. As a result, even if the index opened strong, in most sessions, late selling pulled it down to a negative close. For example, on Friday, the index opened about 100 points higher, rallied over 300 points in early trades but after some hectic late selling crashed over 550 points from its intra-day high. It finally settled 156 points, or 1%, off.

Last week, in each of the five trading sessions, the sensex closed lower than its previous close.

‘‘There could be some small bounce back from here but the correction will resume soon,`` head of dealing at a domestic broking house said. ‘‘Things have reversed now. A few weeks ago (the indices) used to close higher even if there were weak opening,`` said Kejriwal.

While the sensex has lost nearly 8% since Diwali, the worst hit has been telecom, real estate, constructions, banks and metal stocks. Among the sensex shares, Reliance Communications has lost 26%, DLF is down 20% while Jaiprakash Associates is now 19% off.

And given that the results season is over, dealers also don`t see any triggers for the stocks to rally north.

Source:ET / Moneycontrol.com

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